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Gold prices surged to a record high of $3,500 per troy ounce following verbal attacks from the US President on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with analysts noting that such pressure could lead to looser monetary policy and rising inflation. However, prices fell to $3,300 as the President softened his stance, leaving uncertainty about future Fed actions and the potential impact on gold. The situation highlights the delicate balance between government influence and central bank independence, reminiscent of Turkey's economic struggles.
LME Copper reached a two-week high following the Easter weekend, supported by a weaker dollar and comments from Trump hinting at potential tariff reductions on China. Chinese smelters achieved a record output of refined copper in March, producing 1.25 million tonnes, an 8.6% increase from the previous year, despite low processing fees. In the first quarter, total refined copper output in China rose 5% year-on-year to 3.54 million tonnes.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) has appreciated significantly, rising over 7% against the US dollar this month, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) faces challenges with limited options for interest rate cuts. Despite the potential for negative rates, the SNB is cautious about further interventions due to market volatility and external pressures, particularly from the US. The risk of a stronger CHF remains, especially if appreciation accelerates.
The USD experienced a broad recovery, influenced by Trump's assurance of Fed Chairman Powell's position, easing concerns about the Fed's independence. Reports of potential trade war de-escalation with Japan, India, and China contributed to this shift, although skepticism remains about sustained easing signs. The US administration's preference for a weaker dollar complicates the outlook, with analysts cautious about significant declines in EUR/USD without more concrete developments.
UniCredit has expressed concerns that the Italian government's conditions for its €13 billion bid for Banco BPM could hinder its decision-making ability, potentially leading to the abandonment of the offer. The government has imposed restrictions, including a nine-month timeline to exit Russia and maintaining certain financial ratios, which UniCredit argues may limit its operational freedom. As uncertainty grows, Banco BPM's shares have declined, while UniCredit awaits feedback on its response to the government's decree before making a final decision on the bid.
Andrea Orcel's planned €12.7 billion takeover of Banco BPM faces significant hurdles due to the Italian government's "golden power" conditions, which restrict UniCredit's operational flexibility and could increase costs. Despite potential earnings of €2.7 billion, the deal's viability is uncertain, especially with BPM shareholders' demands and political interference raising risks for future M&A in Italy.
UniCredit has expressed concerns that the Italian government's conditions for its €14bn bid for Banco BPM could hinder its decision-making capabilities. The bank is awaiting feedback on these conditions, which include a nine-month deadline to cease activities in Russia and restrictions on its loan-to-deposit ratio. Meanwhile, Banco BPM's shares fell 2.5%, while Commerzbank's shares rose amid ongoing takeover discussions.
UniCredit has expressed concerns that the Italian government's conditions for its €14 billion bid for Banco BPM could hinder its decision-making capabilities. The bank is awaiting feedback on these conditions, which include a nine-month deadline to cease activities in Russia and restrictions on its loan-to-deposit ratio. Until it receives clarity, UniCredit cannot proceed with its offer, which Banco BPM has deemed hostile.
UniCredit's €10bn bid for Banco BPM is in limbo after the Italian government imposed conditions under its golden power rules, complicating CEO Andrea Orcel's plans. The restrictions affect credit activities, asset management, and operations in Russia, raising concerns about their alignment with EU law. This move comes amid a wave of consolidation in Italy's banking sector and has stalled UniCredit's dealmaking ambitions.
The USD/CAD exchange rate has dropped significantly, primarily due to a weakening US dollar rather than Canadian strength. Despite ongoing concerns about US tariffs and a struggling Canadian economy, a recovery in the US dollar is anticipated, potentially leading to higher USD/CAD levels in the near future. The Bank of Canada may need to consider rate cuts if economic conditions worsen.
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